RSK
Friday, October 29, 2010
Hero Pen
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Learn from India : Chinese think-tank
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Young Drummer
A talented little guy... hit the link and enjoy....... http://www.angelfire.com/ak2/intelligencerreport/drummer.html |
Anglo-Indians : the Economist
Better times beckon for India's Anglo-Indians
DRESSED in a floral tea-dress, at a retirement home for Anglo-Indians in Kolkata, Rita McDonald, who is 85, is a poignant reminder of Britain's two-century rule over the Indian subcontinent. Like many Anglo-Indians, members of a Eurasian community spawned during the Raj, she eats bacon and eggs for breakfast, speaks precise English and, though she has lived all her life in India, knows little Hindi or Bengali. Yet her home, hung with yellowing photographs of Queen Elizabeth and the late Diana, Princess of Wales, is thick with tales of poverty and loss.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Saturday, October 23, 2010
MySnaps: Riyadh
RSK
Friday, October 22, 2010
CricTrivia
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Australia scored over 400 in both Tests in India, yet lost them both. Has this ever happened before?
There have been only two previous instances of a team scoring more than 400 in either innings of successive Tests but ending up losing, and one of those hardly qualifies really as it involved the match atThe Oval in 2006, which Pakistan forfeited after making 504 in the first innings; they had also lost the previous Test, at Headingley, after scoring 538. The other instance occurred in the 1924-25 Ashes series, when England lost successive Tests to Australia: in Sydney they made 411 in their second innings, but had been set a target of 605; then in the next Test, in Melbourne, England made 479 in their first innings but lost again. Both of those games in Australia were timeless matches which stretched into the seventh day.
India have scored more than 200 in the last innings to win each of their last three Tests. Has any other country ever done this?
The short answer is no, no other country has ever emulated India's feat of scoring, in successive Tests, 257 to beat Sri Lanka in Colombo, and 216 and 207 to beat Australia in Mohali and Bangalore. The only other country to manage even two consecutive successful chases of more than 200 is Australia, who overhauled 292 to beat South Africa in Johannesburg in 2005-06, and followed that with 307 to beat Bangladesh in Fatullah later in 2006.
Sachin Tendulkar became the first victim of Peter George in Bangalore, and he seems to make a bit of a habit of this. How many bowlers have claimed him as their first wicket, and is it a record?
Peter George was actually the tenth bowler to have claimed Sachin Tendulkar as his first Test wicket, which equals the record of the Englishmen Colin Cowdrey and Herbert Sutcliffe. The others to have Tendulkar as their distinguished first Test scalp are Hansie Cronje (South Africa), Ujesh Ranchod (Zimbabwe; Tendulkar was his only Test wicket), Ruwan Kalpage (Sri Lanka), Mark Ealham (England), Neil Johnson (Zimbabwe), Jacob Oram (New Zealand), Monty Panesar (England), Cameron White (Australia), and Peter Siddle (Australia). A further 19 bowlers have so far claimed Tendulkar's wicket as their first in one-day internationals.
Who has played Tests on the most different grounds?
Not surprisingly, perhaps, the man on top of the list is the player with the most Test appearances: Sachin Tendulkar has so far played Tests on 57 different grounds. Next, with 51, are Rahul Dravid, Anil Kumble and Muttiah Muralitharan, with Shivnarine Chanderpaul one short of his half-century. Mark Boucher and VVS Laxman have so far played on 48 grounds, as did Mohammad Azharuddin. In one-day internationals it's a different story: Tendulkar has played ODIs on 95 different grounds and Dravid on 96, but they are both behindSanath Jayasuriya, who has so far played on 99 different grounds. He may yet make it to 100 if he plays a one-day international at the new ground in Hambantota.
In India's second innings in the first Test, every Australian bowler's runs per over was a whole number. Has this ever happened before?
I wasn't quite sure how to attack this one, but fortunately Travis, the manipulator of the Cricinfo database, came to my rescue. He says it has only ever happened once before, for any innings in which four or more people bowled, and even then the innings lasted only six overs - in this match between India and Pakistan in Calcutta (as it was then called) in 1952-53. India's second innings in Mohali was rather longer - 58.4 overs - yet the runs-per-over column shows Ben Hilfenhaus, Mitchell Johnson and Shane Watson going for exactly 3.00 an over, Doug Bollinger for 4.00 and Nathan Hauritz for 5.00, with Marcus North chiming in with a miserly 2.00.
Quotes
Test cricket is bloody hard work, especially when you've got Sachin batting with what looks like a three-metre-wide bat
I am sick of seeing Sachin scoring so many runs
It's very frustrating, especially after you have batted the way I did, making it look hard for five hours, and then he comes out and smacks it everywhere.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Monday, October 18, 2010
Lion's Brother....
"All the best, my brother. Good luck."
Seeing the mouse shouting away claiming that the lion getting married is his brother, another Lion grabs the mouse in anger and asks: "Who the hell do you think you are? How can a lion be your brother? You are only a mouse."
The Mouse replies:
"I, too, was a Lion before I got married."
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Friday, October 15, 2010
Retirement Planning - Accounting for underlying Longevity Risk
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Retirement calculations are geared towards estimation and planning for the money one needs in the post retirement years. However, while estimating through static analysis the longevity risk may still remain unplanned. Here is an understanding on a more realisticestimation of life expectancies. In an era of economic uncertainty and volatility, coupled with lack of social security mechanisms, one requires to plan for securing a financial independence in retirement. Longevity risk is one of the critical areas that an individual may be exposed to and that can affect him both as individual and as a member of society. Managing the retirement fund assuming that you will live a certain age based on average life expectancy is risky. It must be recognized that life expectancy is based on law of large numbers. In the case of personal life expectancy for any one individual, average life expectancy cannot be a precise evaluation. About fifty percent individuals live longer compared to average life expectancy. Wives outlive husbands in most cases. Further, there are other risks too, like inflation risks, market risk, interest rate risk that the retirees may be exposed to and which need to be addressed. In this paper we have limited the discussions only to longevity risk. A new challenge for Financial Planning Professionals It's time for a new challenge for financial planning professionals. They need to provide a better advice by using dynamic methods of analysis, rather than static methods of analysis. Compared to static methods, dynamic methods of analysis provide more realistic picture for enabling a better decision making. Using static method of analysis, i.e. planning to live to a certain age may be risky or inadequate for most of the individuals. Application of dynamic methods of analysis also requires careful planning because unreasonable assumptions may give misleading results. We have applied the dynamic method in determining life expectancy for individual life and joint life using probability of death, on the basis of actuarial data. Financial Planners thus need to consider all factors and account for longevity risks that individuals may face in their retirement years. Understanding Life Expectancy Life expectancy at a particular age measures the average number of years that you can expect to live. This estimation is based on the mortality rates of the population in a given year. With the improved medical technology along with healthier lifestyles, life expectancy for Indians has increased significantly during the past half century and appears to be improving further. Therefore, one can expect to live longer. In the context of retirement care for life, it also means that an investment portfolio needs to last for 20 years or more if one plans to retire at the age of 60 years. When it comes to retirement care for life, there is a lot at stake. Longevity risk is one of the major concerns while planning for retirement. Based on IRDA 2004-2006 mortality table the average life expectancies formen and women are shown below (Table 1): Average Life Expectancies
* Data Source: IRDA The above table (Table 1) just shows the average life expectancy. The average life expectancy means there is a 50-50 chance that one can live longer. But how much longer? Let's understand this from technical perspective. Probability of Survival – A Technical Perspective Most Financial Planning professionals choose a certain life expectancy age (may be 80, 85 or 90) as an input while constructing afinancial plan across for clients in all age groups to plan for the payout period in the retirement. Further, planners fail to interpret these numbers. There is major gap that exists in understanding these risks and in the techniques dealing with it. Using probability of survival, let's interpret the life expectancy numbers used by most of the planners. The table below (Table 2) which is based on mortality table defines separate mortality rates for males and females of different age group. Caution must be observed in interpreting these probabilities. For example, if the couple both aged 50, there's a 68% chance at least one of you will live to age 80. Table 2: Probability of Survival
It is important to interpret longevity risk correctly. Suppose you are constructing a plan for a 60 years old man and use the life expectancy that described under average life expectancy (50 percentile life expectancy) to plan for pay out period for the investment portfolio. You'd see that your average life expectancy is 18 years i.e. age at death is 78 years. Suppose you then decide your withdrawal rate for retirement corpus so that it will be exhausted after 18 years. This would be a bad move, since there's 50-50 chance that he can live beyond 18 years. In fact there is 25 percent chance (one out of four) that he could live additional 6 years upto the age of 84 and a 5 percent chance (one out of twenty) that he could live additional 14 years upto the age of 92. Let's look at another example. Suppose you are planning for a 60 years old woman. Her average life expectancy is 20 For example: If it is a 40 years old man, there's a 25% chance that he will live another 43 years For example: If it is a 40 years old woman, there's a 25% chance that she will live another 45 years. Years i.e. the age at death is 80 years. But there's a 25 percent chance that she can live additional 6 years upto the age of 86 and a 5 percent chance that she can live additional 14 years upto the age of 94. If you are planning for a married couple it is advisable to use the joint life expectancy, i.e. life expectancy of last survivor. Suppose you are constructing a plan for a 60 years old man with 55 years old spouse. There is 50-50 chance that at least one of the partnerswill live for an additional 27 years. There is 25 percent chance that the money needs to last for the period of 32 years and at the same time there is 5 percent chance that the money needs to last for the period of 39 years. Now that's longevity risk! The tables below (Table 6, 7 & 8) plot the joint life expectancies for probabilities with "50th percentile","75th percentile" and "95th percentile". This will help you out while selecting your drawdown period for determining withdrawal rate in retirement. Table 5: Joint Life Expectancy for "50th percentile" (50% chance last survivor will live longer for remaining years)
Table 6: Joint Life Expectancy for "75th percenti le" (25% chance last survivor will live longer for remaining years)
Table 7: Joint Life expectancy for "95th percenti le" (5% chance last survivor will live longer for remaining years)
Consequences of living longer than expected It is evident if individuals outlive five years longer than expected, in the absence of proper Financial Planning, the situation can be disastrous. Following are the likely strategies that one may have to adapt to in such a situation.
In actual practice, many retirees are forced to adopt these practices well before they reach average life expectancy. The bottom line While planning for pay out period for determining withdrawal rate of the investment portfolio in retirement, it would be wise to use 25 percent likelihoods and may be even 5 percent likelihoods. This will allow for a factor of safety in the financial plan to ensure that the money lasts for life. Apart from longevity risk, other risks also have to be accounted for securing financial well-being in retirement. Some common ones are: Inflation risks, Market risk, Interest rate risk, unforeseen needs of family members, and unexpected health care costs. Let's assist our clients in planning for a rewarding retirement. |